{"id":1184,"date":"2017-10-30T03:47:46","date_gmt":"2017-10-30T03:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nigerianews.ca\/?p=1184"},"modified":"2017-10-30T03:47:54","modified_gmt":"2017-10-30T03:47:54","slug":"opinion-lessons-for-nigeria-from-indias-1991-economic-crisis-by-mayowa-m-adeleye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nigerianews.ca\/opinion-lessons-for-nigeria-from-indias-1991-economic-crisis-by-mayowa-m-adeleye\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Lessons For Nigeria From India\u2019s 1991 Economic Crisis, By Mayowa M Adeleye"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Oct 30, 2017<\/p>\n

NigeriaNews.Ca<\/p>\n

It is no news again that Nigeria\u2019s monolith economy has gone through a period of great turbulence aftermath of the crash in crude oil global prices due to over supply crude oil glut that has exceeded the global crude oil demand.<\/p>\n

Nigeria is left with no option than to diversify the economy beyond relying on raw Crude Oil export revenue. Furthermore, Nigeria\u2019s Federal Government must move away from following the protectionist policies that are influenced by socialist economics.<\/p>\n

The Federal Government should do away with widespread federal government over-intervention and over-regulation that has largely walled the economy off from the outside world.<\/p>\n

With the imminent financial constraints facing the nation as we plan ahead for 2016, Nigeria must diversify and liberalize its economy to move towards a free-market system that will place emphasis on both foreign trade and direct investment inflows, to prevent against danger of balance of payment\u2026<\/p>\n

Nigerian economic model must be largely capitalist to survive the shock, even after exiting recession by the marginal +0.55% in the 2nd quarter of 2017.<\/p>\n

The economic liberalization in Nigeria must be continuous in refocusing the economic policies with the goal of making the economy more market-oriented and expanding the role of private and foreign investment.<\/p>\n

Eventually these moves will lead to specific changes that will include among others: the relaxation of the tight forex exchange policies, reduction in import tariffs, privatization and deregulation of markets, taxes incentives for investors, and greater foreign investment.<\/p>\n

Such economy liberalization and diversification will lead to unprecedented high economic growth in the country.<\/p>\n

Quick Reminder:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Former President Obasanjo recently made public attack on former President Jonathan, accusing him of squandering $25 billion crude oil savings (excess crude oil account) left behind by his administration.<\/p>\n

Obasanjo\u2019s administration left over $25 billion to his successor, late Musa Yar\u2019adua, who raised the sum in the excess crude oil account to $35 billion within 2 years in government. As at November 28, 2015, the balance in the excess crude oil revenue account remained at $2.258 billion.<\/p>\n

Obasanjo\u2019s administration also left $40 billion in Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve account after paying all the outstanding debt at the time while former President Yar\u2019adua also raised the Nigerian external foreign reserves to $ 60 billion.<\/p>\n

Under Former President Jonathan, the Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserves plummeted to $30 billion by May 2015 handover day. As at December 15, 2015, Nigeria, a country of over 170 million people, under President Buhari has a foreign external reserves of $29 billion!<\/p>\n

About 1991 Indian economic crisis?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a clue from 1990 Indian economic crisis and how India, a nation of over 1 billion population survived bank going bankrupt less than 25 years ago!<\/p>\n

Since 1960s, India depended on the Soviet Union for majority of Indian\u2019s exports under Indian socialism-like economy. India failed to develop good economic relationships with the US and Western Europe and Indian failed to diversify their economy.<\/p>\n

It was a good going for a while (India and the Soviet Union) until the late 1980s when Soviet Union started to crack and by 1991 they were split into 15 nations (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, etc). At that point, India had a major problem because their primary buyer was in turmoil. Exports were down significantly. this crisis was worsen by the US-Iraqi war of 1991.<\/p>\n

From 1985, India socialist economy started having balance of payments problems. By 1990, it was in a serious National economic crisis. The government was close to default on its external balance of payment obligations!<\/p>\n

Indian central bank had refused new credit and foreign exchange reserves had been reduced to such a point that India could barely finance three weeks\u2019 worth of imports which led the Indian government to airlift national gold reserves as a pledge to the International Monetary Fund in exchange for a loan to cover balance of payment debts.<\/p>\n

With India\u2019s external foreign exchange reserves at $1.2 billion in January 1991 and depleted by half to $0.6 billion by June 1991, barely enough to last for roughly 3 weeks of essential imports, India was only weeks way from defaulting on its external balance of payment obligations.<\/p>\n

Government of India\u2019s immediate response was to secure an emergency loan of $2.2 billion from the International Monetary Fund by pledging 67 tons of India\u2019s gold reserves as collateral.<\/p>\n

The Reserve Bank of India had to airlift 47 tons of gold to the Bank of England and 20 tons of gold to the Union Bank of Switzerland to raise $600 million. National sentiments were outraged and there was public outcry when it was learned that the government had pledged the country\u2019s entire gold reserves against the loan.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, it was later revealed that the van transporting the gold to the airport broke down on route and panic followed. A chartered plane ferried the precious cargo to London between 21 May and 31 May 1991, jolting the country out of an economic slumber.<\/p>\n

The Chandra Shekhar government had collapsed a few months after having authorised the airlift. The move helped tide over the balance of payment crisis and kick-started P.V. Narasimha Rao\u2019s economic reform process.<\/p>\n

P. V. Narasimha Rao took over as Prime Minister in June 1991 and roped in Manmohan Singh as Finance Minister. The Narasimha Rao government ushered in several reforms that are collectively termed as liberalization in the Indian media. Although, most of these reforms came because IMF required those reforms as a condition for loaning money to India in order to overcome the crisis.<\/p>\n

There were significant opposition to such reforms, suggesting they are an \u201cinterference with India\u2019s autonomy\u201d. Then Prime Minister Rao\u2019s speech a week after he took office highlighted the necessity for reforms, as New York Times reported, \u201cMr. Rao, who was sworn in as Prime Minister last week, has already sent a signal to the nation\u2014as well as the I.M.F.\u2014that India faced no \u201csoft options\u201d and must open the door to foreign investment, reduce red tape that often cripples initiative and streamline industrial policy.<\/p>\n

The foreign external reserves started picking up with the onset of the liberalization policies and peaked to $353.876 billion in the week to May 2015.<\/p>\n

What is the aftermath of liberalization of Indian Economy?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A programme of economic policy reform since 1991 has since been put in place which has yielded very satisfactory results so far.<\/p>\n

While much still remains on the unfinished reform agenda, the prospects of macro stability and growth are indeed encouraging.<\/p>\n

The same India that could not have barely $1 billion in its foreign reserve in June 1991, in May 2015 had a foreign external reserves of $353.876 billion. Thanks to the economy liberalization policies.<\/p>\n

Opinion by Adeleye Mayowa Michael<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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